Opening the ties with Azerbaijan and Turkey can bring significant changes for Armenia in the South Caucasus. Due to the long blockade that resulted in bypass routes for oil, gas and railway, Armenia has obtained the opportunity to turn into a communication hub in the region. This opinion was expressed by Armenian and Azerbaijani experts during an online discussion on CivilNet, organized in cooperation with the Yerevan and Baku Press Clubs.
Boris Navasardian, the Honorary President of the Yerevan Press Club, and Sabit Bagirov from Baku, the Chairman of the Fund of Assistance to Development of Entrepreneurship and Market Economy, discussed the reasons why Armenia and Azerbaijan have not yet started opening transport links and why the “Crossroads of Peace” project may be even more important than signing a peace agreement.
Experts generally agreed that it is in the interests of Armenia and Azerbaijan to restore all the transport and economic ties in the region that were abandoned and lost their functionality after the collapse of the USSR.
Reasons for Stalling
After the second Karabakh war in December 2020, Yerevan and Baku started negotiations to unblock the transport routes, which was considered an important part of the peace agreement. However, no significant progress has been made in this regard.
The main problem was the attempt to restore the railway and motorways through southern Armenia, which would have connected the “mainland” Azerbaijan with its Nakhichevan autonomy. Azerbaijan insisted that these roads should have a status similar to the “Lachin Corridor”, while Armenia categorically rejected this.
“The issue of extraterritoriality has significantly hindered Yerevan and Baku from opening communications. It is largely embedded in the trilateral statement of November 9, 2020, which suggests that the control over the road should be exercised by the Russian FSB border troops. This, precisely, is the point that is unacceptable for the Armenian side today. Moreover, there is no sense in talking about the implementation of other points of this statement,” Boris Navasardian noted.
Meanwhile, after Azerbaijan established control over Nagorno-Karabakh, the interest of the Azerbaijani authorities in transit through Armenia has noticeably decreased. Baku reached an agreement with Iran to build a railway across the northern part of the country to connect Azerbaijan with the Nakhichevan exclave.
Around the same time, Armenia proposed its project of unblocking the transport communications, called “Crossroads of Peace”, suggesting to restore all the transport and economic links in the region from north to south, from west to east.
“The key point of this project is to develop communications between Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and the Islamic Republic of Iran through the rehabilitation, construction and operation of roads, railways, pipelines, cables, power lines,” Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said during the presentation of the Peace Crossroads project at the Silk Road International Forum in Tbilisi on October 26.
At the same time, Pashinyan emphasized the principled position of the Armenian side on the inadmissibility of any extraterritoriality, “All the infrastructure, including the roads, railways, air routes, pipelines, cables, power lines, operate under the sovereignty and jurisdiction of the countries through which they pass”.
Glimmers of Hope
The Armenian “Crossroads of Peace” project, as Sabit Bagirov notes, has given rise to some hopes that Armenia is ready to demonstrate a serious approach to creating a transport hub in the South Caucasus. “I think this is very important and will work for the benefit of not only economic development, but also cultural exchange between people in the region,” the expert said.
Although Sabit Bagirov is not familiar with the official position of Baku regarding the Armenian project, judging by the reaction in the local press, he believes that Azerbaijan is interested in its implementation. “This project involves the opening of three checkpoints from the Armenian side on the border with Azerbaijan, and two with Turkey, which is very serious. This will contribute to the increase of cargo flow and economic development of both countries,” Bagirov said.
According to Boris Navasardian, in terms of stabilizing the situation in the region and reducing the level of conflict, unblocking the communications is even more important in practice than signing a peace agreement, as it leads to increased interdependence and the emergence of common interests. Although, of course, it does not eliminate the need for a political document that enshrines the normalization of interstate relations.
“This can act as an incentive to ensure that neither side is tempted to resolve issues through the use of force in the future. The joint use of transport communications in itself opens up prospects for far-reaching programs of strategic development of the region’s economy as a whole,” Boris Navasardian believes. It attaches particular importance to efforts to attract foreign investment for the implementation of these communication projects that contribute to increasing the significance of the South Caucasus for the international trade system. “I think, very many countries will be highly interested. After all, despite the geopolitical contradictions, even Russia can see its interest here, regardless of the status of its border troops, which today is almost the main obstacle to achieving a universal consensus,” the expert concluded.