Israel and Iran, India and Pakistan, Russia and the West: in Armenia, we can observe on a small scale what determines global politics on a large scale.
by Isolde Ruhdorfer
There is a family that even has their births televised, but hardly anyone knows anything about the country of their origin. The Kardashians are one of the most famous celebrity families in the USA, and they made TV history when Kourtney Kardashian had the birth of her son Mason filmed and aired.
But what the public discussed much less was Kourtney’s visit to Armenia. In 2019, she traveled there with her children and sister, the country where her great-great-grandparents are from. “We remember our roots in Armenia” was the headline of the text on her blog.
A country that is also rarely mentioned in German news and is still confused with Albania by many people. Just to be clear right away: there are nearly 3,000 kilometers between Albania and Armenia.
Armenia attracts attention from anyone with an interest in international politics due to its unique geographical location, where several international lines of conflict intersect. Benyamin Poghosyan, geopolitics expert and researcher at the Applied Research Policy Institute of Armenia, told me: “The South Caucasus is a microcosm of the multilateral world order.” Multilateralism, in this context, refers to the complex network of global politics.
I spent a week in Armenia to discover why the country finds itself caught between the tensions of Israel and Iran, India and Pakistan, Russia and the West. In this text, I’ll show you how this is happening.
My time in Armenia made it clear: if the world were a village, Armenia would be the crossroads in the middle where everyone traveling through would meet sooner or later. Armenia, therefore, also exemplifies the interconnected nature of global events – the factors determining world politics on a large scale can be observed on a small scale in this country.
Armenia and Azerbaijan: the conflict was never really frozen
Let’s start with the basics: Armenia, a country in mountainous South Caucasus region, has a population of roughly three million, which is less than Berlin. However, around five to seven million Armenians live in the diaspora, spread in countries like the USA, France, Georgia, Iran, Lebanon, Germany and many others. The large diaspora is a result of repeated persecutions faced by Armenians over the centuries. The genocide by the Ottoman Empire at the beginning of the 20th century, in particular, led to mass migration.
The capital is Yerevan, and on a clear day you can see Mount Ararat, the symbol of Armenia.
You may have noticed a year ago that the inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh were expelled. This was a temporary climax to the long-standing conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Nagorno-Karabakh is a mountainous region that Armenia and Azerbaijan have been fighting over for centuries. Under international law, Nagorno-Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan, but was inhabited by a majority of Armenians and declared itself independent following the collapse of the Soviet Union. In the early 1990s, a war broke out, in which tens of thousands of people died.
In 1994, the warring sides negotiated a ceasefire, and Nagorno-Karabakh joined the list of “frozen conflicts” on the territory of the former Soviet Union. However, the conflict was never really frozen, but continued to smolder.
In 2020, Azerbaijan attacked and managed to conquer large parts of the Nagorno-Karabakh region. This is widely recognized as the first war where drones played a decisive role in the outcome. In 2023, Azerbaijani troops advanced again and captured the entire region. As a result, almost 100,000 residents of Nagorno-Karabakh fled to Armenia out of fear of the Azerbaijani soldiers. It is still unclear whether they will ever be able to return.
Why this matters: there are two critical points to consider. Firstly, all the experts I talked to noted that there is a high probability that Azerbaijan could launch another attack on Armenia in the coming months. Secondly, there are several other countries involved in this conflict, whose disputes also have to do with Germany.
Iran and Israel: they influence the outcome of wars in the South Caucasus
Since October 7, 2023, the Middle East has dominated headlines, including in Germany. The term ‘spiral of violence’ has been repeated so often that it risks becoming an empty word. What is often overlooked, however, is that this ‘spiral of violence’ not only affects the Middle East, but also the South Caucasus.
When bombs fall in the Middle East, it is not just a news item for Armenia. A headline on “CivilNet”, an Armenian news site, on October 7, 2024 read: “Are the Flames of the Middle East Reaching the Caucasus?” Armenia is not only geographically close to the Middle East—what happens there affects its security situation. Much of this is tied to the enmity between Israel and Iran.
After the so-called Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran declared Israel its arch-enemy. The destruction of Israel is even Iran’s state doctrine. Since then, the two countries have been fighting each other, at times openly, but more often behind the scenes. In this ongoing struggle, Iran supports many other actors in the region, so-called proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon.What does this have to do with Armenia, apart from the geographical proximity? Quite simply, Armenia has good relations with Iran, while Israel is a partner of Azerbaijan.
Armenia has four neighboring countries, but open borders with only two of them: Georgia and Iran. While Russia supplies around 90 percent of Armenia’s gas needs, the country also receives gas from Iran. In 2022, the two countries signed an agreement to double gas imports. On the other hand, Azerbaijan and Israel maintain strong ties, with Azerbaijan covering around 40 percent of Israel’s oil needs and Israel, in turn, supporting Azerbaijan with weapons. According to the SIPRI, an independent peace research institute, 70 percent of Azerbaijan’s arms imports between 2016 and 2020 came from Israel. Without Israeli weaponry, Azerbaijan might not have won the war for Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020.
Why this matters: it demonstrates the importance of not looking at certain conflicts and wars in isolation. Anyone following events in the Middle East should also be interested in Armenia. The enmity between Iran and Israel had a direct influence on the outcome of the war in 2020.
India and Pakistan: how the South Caucasus gained strategic importance for these rivals
You might be wondering: what on earth are India and Pakistan doing here? Well, surprisingly, Armenia is not that far away from these two countries.
The two neighboring countries have been enemies since their independence, with the main dispute centering on the region of Kashmir, which is claimed by both. India and Pakistan have therefore waged several wars against each other. And, as you can imagine, this conflict is also reflected in Armenia.
India and Pakistan are not only fighting each other in Kashmir—their rivalry has now reached the South Caucasus. Armenia is currently the largest importer of weapons from India, with arms purchases totaling 600 million dollars in recent years. To make things a little more complicated: Armenia, India and Iran form a tripartite alliance. Last year, the foreign ministers of the three countries met in the Armenian capital Yerevan for “political consultations.”
On the other side, Pakistan is actively supporting Azerbaijan with weaponry. According to media reports, Azerbaijan is said to have purchased fighter jets from Pakistan for 1.6 billion dollars. Mirroring the Armenia-India-Iran alliance, Azerbaijan has aligned itself with Pakistan and Turkey—tripartite alliance against another, so to speak.
Why this matters: The involvement of India and Pakistan once again highlights the significance of Armenia’s strategic position. Situated at the crossroads between Europe and Asia, thousands of years ago the Silk Road passed through its territory, making Armenia a key hub for trade routes. Thus, both India and Pakistan have come to understand the critical importance of the South Caucasus and are therefore trying to assert their interests in the region.
Russia and the West: Armenia is caught between the fronts
Russia has long been regarded as Armenia’s protecting power; the 2020 ceasefire, for example, was brokered by Russia. Russian “peacekeepers” were also stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh to prevent a renewed flare-up of violence. This was agreed by the presidents of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.
It may seem a little absurd that Russia, a country waging war against Ukraine, should ensure peace elsewhere. In fact, since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has not played a particularly peaceful role in the South Caucasus either. Russian forces, for example, stood idly by during the expulsion of the inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh. Many Armenians feel betrayed by Russia, and the Armenian government is aggressively looking for new partners, trying to reduce the country’s dependence on Russia.
Why this matters: Armenia has found itself in the middle of the confrontation between Russia and the West, with Germany and the EU also playing a role. Since Russia attacked Ukraine, its interest in supporting Armenia has decreased. Meanwhile, the EU, aiming to cut the dependence on Russian gas, has therefore concluded a new gas deal with Azerbaijan.
Armenia calls itself a prisoner of geography
During my visit to Yerevan, geopolitics expert Benyamin Poghosyan told me: “In Armenia, we often refer to ourselves as prisoners of geography.” He is not sure whether “prisoner” is the best word, “but our geography definitely plays an important role here.”
This geography led to the Kardashians’ ancestors having to leave their homeland generations ago. It also leads to the Kardashians drawing attention to their land of origin today. Shortly before the population of Nagorno-Karabakh fled, Kim Kardashian called on US President Joe Biden to stop “another Armenian genocide.”
Armenia is an area where even survival is a fine art, writes Armenologist Tessa Hofmann in her book “Approaching Armenia.” Because, she continues, “hardly a century went by without war and violence.”
This has not changed to this day.
This article was published within the frames of “Correspondents in Conflict” Project,
implemented by Yerevan Press Club and Deutsche Gesellschaft e. V. The Project is
funded by the German Federal Foreign Office within the “Eastern Partnership Program”.
The contents of this article are the sole responsibility of the implementing partners and can in
no way be taken to reflect the views of the Federal Foreign Office. #civilsocietycooperation
Isolde Ruhdorfer is a journalist and works for the online-journal “Krautreporter” in Berlin. She studied Science of Eastern Europe in Cologne (Germany) and Nizhny Novgorod (Russia). She’s also an “International Journalists’ Programmes”-fellow and worked two months in the Republic of Moldova. For “Krautreporter”, she writes about foreign politics and tries to give the readers an understanding of what international politics has to do with their lives.
